Music Business Is Alive (V.1)

I read Jeff Price of TuneCore‘s response to an article in Digital Music News questioning the validity of measurement tools related to the success of new artist’s in the digital world. Some excellent thoughts posted, I encourage you to read them. Here is my response:

It is back to the future. Great songs matter, not albums. Building a fan base matters, not marketing muscle. Making a living matters, not being a rockstar. The real question is how does one now measure success? Yes we are all competitive, so we need a chart. Or do we?

Is success measured by gross income across a weighted multitude of income streams? Would that be based on a calendar or fiscal year? Interesting concept the IRS would love.

Should all the indie distributors and artists report in to Nielson? Why, so numbers with a hint of authenticity can continue to create false impressions? What about streams, blog posts, search requests, touring schedule, and so on.

The point of your post is well taken. The old measurement tools are imperfect. The old guard is sadly blind in the woods. However, music creation is thriving. Success is measured individually. The music business is alive.

@rich2001

Music Half-life Shelf-life Theory

Half-life – the period of time for a substance undergoing decay to decrease by half.

Shelf-life – the length of time that a perishable item is given before it is unsuitable for sale.

Originally conceived in the 1980’s, just prior to my creating the Sony Legacy catalog division, I was noticing how different genres of music had a fairly predictable shelf-life.

For the sake of argument, the original generation of classic rock – the Beatles, Stones, Dylan, Dead – had an indefinate shelf-life. Every generation of music fan would in some way respect them, and their catalogs would be valuable forever.

As we moved into the following decade, the new styles of music – metal, glam, disco, prog – would only be acceptable to ‘half’ of music fans, or, it would only be cool to every other generation – ex: Led Zep loved in the 70s, hated in the 80s, loved in the 90s, etc.  The premium sales levels peaked in half the time. The catalog had half the value.

The following generation of music – punk, dance, new wave, hip hop – continued with the ‘genre-ization’ of music, whereby now, only a quarter of fans liked, or every fourth generation accepted, their none conforming genre.  And so on.  Quick, get another record out.  Create a new sub-genre.

We are now at the tipping point of the half-life, where (except in rare instances) a piece of music is released, sales immediately peak, and it is on to the next one.  Where is the long term value now?

I have always argued that we will reach the point where the creation of music, and the performance or participation in such, is music’s lifeline.  The instant life and death of a creative piece.  Being there, experiencing it, playing it, hearing it, feeling it.  We are almost there.  The shelf-life of creative content is reaching zero.

twitter: @rich2001